Like nearly everything else in the scientific world, nothing about DNA fingerprinting is 100% assured. The term DNA fingerprint is, in one sense, a misnomer: it implies that, like a fingerprint, the VNTR pattern for a given person is utterly and completely unique to that person. Actually, all that a VNTR pattern can do is present a probability that the person in question is indeed the person to whom the VNTR pattern (of the child, the criminal evidence, or whatever else) belongs. Given, that probability might be 1 in 20 billion, which would indicate that the person can be reasonably matched with the DNA fingerprint; then again, that probability might only be 1 in 20, leaving a large amount of doubt regarding the specific identity of the VNTR pattern's owner.
1. Generating a High Probability
The probability of a DNA fingerprint belonging to a specific person needs
to be reasonably high--especially in criminal cases, where the association
helps establish a suspect's guilt or innocence. Using certain rare VNTRs
or combinations of VNTRs to create the VNTR pattern increases the
probability that the two DNA samples do indeed match (as opposed to look
alike, but not actually come from the same person) or correlate (in the
case of parents and children).
2. Problems with Determining Probability
A. Population Genetics
VNTRs, because they are results of genetic inheritance, are not
distributed evenly across all of human population. A given VNTR cannot,
therefore, have a stable probability of occurrence; it will vary depending
on an individual's genetic background. The difference in probabilities is
particularly visible across racial lines. Some VNTRs that occur very
frequently among Hispanics will occur very rarely among Caucasians or
African-Americans. Currently, not enough is known about the VNTR frequency
distributions among ethnic groups to determine accurate probabilities for
individuals within those groups; the heterogeneous genetic composition of
interracial individuals, who are growing in number, presents an entirely
new set of questions. Further experimentation in this area, known as
population genetics, has been surrounded with and hindered by controversy,
because the idea of identifying people through genetic anomalies along
racial lines comes alarmingly close to the eugenics and ethnic
purification movements of the recent past, and, some argue, could provide
a scientific basis for racial discrimination.
B. Technical Difficulties
Errors in the hybridization and probing process must also be figured into
the probability, and often the idea of error is simply not acceptable.
Most people will agree that an innocent person should not be sent to
jail, a guilty person allowed to walk free, or a biological mother denied
her legal right to custody of her children, simply because a lab
technician did not conduct an experiment accurately. When the DNA sample
available is minuscule, this is an important consideration, because there
is not much room for error, especially if the analysis of the DNA sample
involves amplification of the sample (creating a much larger sample of
genetically identical DNA from what little material is available),
because if the wrong DNA is amplified (i.e. a skin cell from the lab
technician) the consequences can be profoundly detrimental. Until
recently, the standards for determining DNA fingerprinting matches, and
for laboratory security and accuracy which would minimize error, were
neither stringent nor universally codified, causing a great deal of
public outcry.
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